Tuesday, May 12, 2020

TRADE LESS. A conversation with myself.

Some trading ideas.
1. Trade less.  Hold winners longer, even if they are "expensive."
2. Do my own work, and trust my own work.
3. Go to the source.  "The 10k, that's the thing to read." -Warren Buffett
4. Listen to earnings calls or replays of them.  It's amazing what you can learn by listening to management teams.  Why read a sell-side recap? You can get online and listen for free.
5. Technical analysis is utterly worthless.  Actually, it's not.  If you could systematically do the OPPOSITE of what a technician tells you, you could make money.  The problem is none of them do anything systematically anyway, so you can't even use them as a contrarian indicator.  I've found my results improved dramatically after I took all technical indicators off my charts on my Bloomberg- I have nothing but prices, with an exponential scale.  NO MOVING AVERAGES!
6. Read further.  The headlines are usually bullshit. Dig just one layer deeper- look at the actual data yourself- it's almost always there for the taking.
7. Read a lot. Read biographies, autobiographies, stories of how companies started, read about things that seem to have no direct relation to your work.  Read hundreds of pages of 10ks, and industry magazines.  Trade magazines like WWD, Semiconductor Digest, AdWeek, Variety, are especially useful.
8. Avoid "battleground" stocks that everyone is talking about and instead find stocks like OKTA and SHOP that aren't household names and yet go up all the time.
9. It's interesting when "expensive" stocks that have gone up a lot don't get hit much when the market goes down.
10. Quants move shit around a lot day to day but you don't have to trade like they do, and you don't have to let them shake you out of your positions.
11.  If you have a really good stock, like a favorite watch or car, keep it, even if you can sell it for a lot more than you paid for it.  It's hard to get good things like this back.
12. Don't be afraid to overpay.  The best things I've bought in life including watches, cars, trips I have paid top dollar for.


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  3. Terrific. Always bringing traders and investors back to Earth. Miss your posts and sage advice, my friend.

  4. you ever coming back to the clown car driven off a cliff into a golmine bird app ? YOU ARE MISSED