I offer for your contemplation a list of good things.
Please offer your feedback and comments to me on twitter.
My twitter is @dasan.
Good things happening:
· New Fed chair is boring and steady; good transition
· Employment getting better- down to 6.6%
· Rates in Italy and Spain low. Euro crisis over. Italy 10-year pre-crisis lows
· Greece stable
· Japan Nikkei up a lot last year- Japan has real economic change
· Gas and oil production high in the US. Prices reasonable
· Middle East calming: even Iran talks
· China slowing but not collapsing- takes pressure off commodity prices
· House passed a budget deal to avoid standoff
· House prices in US have rallied enough to help consumer and bank balance sheets
· There is a 50% chance of a budget surplus in the US in 2016
· Supply and demand for stocks is favorable: only 3665 companies in the Wilshire 5000- net decline in listed stocks- was 8k, now 5k, not many IPOs last few years
· Very modest inflation in commodities and consumer products such as clothing
· High-profile people in finance are arguing the market is overvalued (Shiller, Klarman)
· Number of people quitting their jobs is up , 1.8% quit rate, Sept 09 low was 1.2%, which indicates loosening job market and increased confidence
· M&A is picking up as companies are more willing to use their cash for growth
· CAPEX projections by companies in most industries are up due to increased confidence