Thursday, February 27, 2014

Good Things Happening.

I'm amazed at the contempt for this bull market.

I offer for your contemplation a list of good things.

Please offer your feedback and comments to me on twitter.

My twitter is @dasan.

Thank you.

Good things happening:
·         China and Taiwan talking, defusing tensions
·         New Fed chair is boring and steady; good transition 
·         Employment getting better- down to 6.6%
·         Rates in Italy and Spain low.  Euro crisis over.  Italy 10-year pre-crisis lows
·         Greece stable
·         Japan Nikkei up a lot last year- Japan has real economic change
·         Gas and oil production high in the US. Prices reasonable
·         Middle East calming: even Iran talks
·         China slowing but not collapsing- takes pressure off commodity prices
·         House passed a budget deal to avoid standoff
·         House prices in US have rallied enough to help consumer and bank balance sheets
·         There is a 50% chance of a budget surplus in the US in 2016
·         Supply and demand for stocks is favorable: only 3665 companies in the Wilshire 5000- net decline in listed stocks- was 8k, now 5k, not many IPOs last few years
·         Very modest inflation in commodities and consumer products such as clothing
·         High-profile people in finance are arguing the market is overvalued (Shiller, Klarman)
·         Number of people quitting their jobs is up , 1.8% quit rate, Sept 09 low was 1.2%, which indicates loosening job market and increased confidence
·         M&A is picking up as companies are more willing to use their cash for growth
·         CAPEX projections by companies in most industries are up due to increased confidence

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